IB Traders Insight


NEW - IB Traders' Insight Daily Commentary Videos View Videos

1 2 3 4 5 2 1691


Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 28)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3173.20 points. The A-shares stocks stopped the upward trend and retreated 0.56% today, as Chinese currency was bolstered to two-week high. Bank and Steel sectors led the gains; while Household Appliance and Food& Beverage sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 371.4bn, down 2.93% dod.

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3173.20

-0.56

162.08

2.24

Shenzhen

10451.57

-0.80

209.59

2.70

CSI 300

3646.17

-0.78

124.47

10.15

ChiNext

1808.20

-0.64

46.48

-7.84

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Bank

002142

Steel

603028

Downward-leading

Household Appliance

000921

Food& Beverage

600779

 

NEWS

*China welcomes foreign participation on reform: Li Keqiang. China’s reform needs the participation of foreign capital, companies and wisdom, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday, pledging easier access into the Chinese market and a level playing field. The premier made was answering a question from Dutch multinational Royal DSM’s CEO Feike Sijbesma in a meeting with global business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Dalian. “We welcome foreign firms to come to China and participate in corporate reorganization and will further lower the threshold of services to foster new growth engines,” Li said. (Xinhua)

*Renminbi firms to two-week high as PBoC sets trading band stronger. China’s currency has been bolstered to the firmest level in nearly two weeks after the country’s central bank strengthened the renminbi’s trading band by the most in almost a month. The renminbi’s onshore exchange rate, CNY, was as much as 0.3 per cent firmer against the dollar in morning trade on Wednesday at Rmb6.7955, putting it at the strongest level since June 15 after firming 0.4 per cent during the previous session. (Financial Times)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13656




Macro

European Market Outlook: Markets Fluctuate in Asia, Yields Jump on Draghi/US Lead


Morning Briefing June 28th 2017


Wednesday's calendar throws up another busy session, with plenty of data and the ongoing ECB forum in Sintra Portugal.

The data calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German Import/Export Prices.

At the same time in the UK, the Nationwide Jine house price index will be published.

The French data expected at 0645GMT includes the latest Consumer sentiment data and the housing starts and permits data.

Spanish retail sales data will be published at 0700GMT.

At 0715GMT, BBK Board member Joachim Wuermeling speech at media seminar of German Bundesbank, in Frankfurt.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John C. Williams speaks about The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences at the The Economic Association of Australia, Eminent Speaker Series 2017 in Canberra, ACT, with audience Q&A, starting at 0730GMT.

The ECB will publish the latest M3 money supply data at 0800GMT.

ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch chairs Session 2 "Business cycles, growth and macroeconomic policy" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Sintra, Portugal.

In Italy, the preliminary June inflation data will be released at 0900GMT.

At 0945GMT, ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speaks on a panel during a symposium celebrating the anniversary of Bafin.

Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index. Back in the UK, at the same time, Prime Minister Theresa May will take question from MPs and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in what will likely be a fiery first PMQs of the new Parliament.

There is more US data due at 1230GMT, when the advance trade and advance business inventories numbers are published.

ECB President Mario Draghi participates on Policy Panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Sintra, Portugal. Also appearing are BOE Governor Mark Carney, BOC's Stephen Poloz and BOJ head Haruhiko Kuroda.

At 1400GMT, the latest NAR pending home sales data will be released, followed by the DOE weekly crude oil stocks data at 1430GMT.

At 1805GMT, BOC Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson speech at the CFA Society Calgary, in Calgary, AB.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:  Nikkei 225 down 65.03 points at 20160.06  ASX 200 up 20.706 points at 5734.9  Shanghai Comp. down 5.126 points at 3186.26  JGB 10-Yr future down 3 ticks at 150.59, JGB 10-Yr yield up 0.8bp at 0.055%  Aussie 3-Yr future down 6 ticks at 98.13, Aussie 3-Yr yield up 4.8bp at 1.809%  Aussie 10-Yr future down 7.5 ticks at 97.525, Aussie 10-Yr yield up 7.1bp at 2.425%  US 10-Yr future flat at 126.09, US 10-Yr yield down 0.88bp at 2.1963%

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries end Tues lower, after big EGB selloff as ECB's Draghi said "may change policy to keep stance unchanged, not tighten". Tsys had "OK" $34B 5Y auction (tailed mildly to 1.828%, relatively strong 65.2% indirects, good 9.18% directs, only small 25.6% dealers.) T-Notes open Asia at 126.08, 10-Year yield last 2.205%

AUSSIE BONDS: The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sell A$800mln of 2.75% Nov 2028 bonds, issue #TB148 - Average Yield: 2.4791% (prev. 2.5447%)  - High Yield: 2.48% (prev. 2.5475%); Allotted at high: 56.2% (prev. 4.8%)  - Bid/Cover: 3.50 (prev. 3.0438)

BOJ: The BoJ offers to buy total Y880bln of JGB's from the market, all sizes unchanged from the previous operation - Y280bln of 1-3 Year JGB's - Y300bln of 3-5 Year JGB's - Y200bln of 10-25 Year JGB's - Y100bln of 25+ Year JGB's

US EURODLR FUTURES: Mixed across the strip, off lows hit yesterday and moving within a range in thin volumes. Fed's Kashkari spoke late on, spoke of concerns on inflation but said there was no indication of another crisis on the horizon. 

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks head into lunch lower, the Nikkei 225 down 58 points at 20,166.21. Shares in Japan have fluctuated so far, just making it into positive territory mid-morning after opening at session lows after a negative lead from US stocks, this move up was short-lived and shares dropped back. US stocks struggled after Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer said that asset prices looked rich. Also pressuring stocks was the decision by the Senate to delay the ACA bill until after the Senate recess. Australian shares are bucking the negative trend in Asia with iron ore higher and crude recovering in Asia.

OIL: Oil is lower in Asia but it well off lows hit following API inventory data, WTI last trades down $0.15 at $44.09 after hitting $43.55 after API data showed headline crude inventories rose 851k bbls against expectations for a decline. Gasoline stocks rose again, printing a build of 1.35mln bbls - this comes despite being peak "driving season" in the US. - Oil has recovered during Asia as DXY falls, the index fell from 97.467 on Tuesday to last trade at 96.367.

GOLD: Gold is higher in Asia, the yellow metal last up $5.99 at $1,253.16 on track for its second consecutive day of advance. Gold is now almost back at the pre-fat finger levels from Monday. - Gold is being supported by a weaker DXY, the index fell from 97.467 on Tuesday to last trade at 96.367. The US dollar weakened after a spike in the euro following hawkish comments from ECB President Draghi. Upside in gold is being limited by a jump in yields in the US where the curve was up around 3-6bp on Tuesday.

FOREX: Euro-dollar remained front and centre in the Asia-Pacific region, inspired by hawkish rhetoric from ECB President Draghi yesterday, the single currency remained on the front foot and eked out a fresh high of $1.1356 before consolidating around the high for the session. Dollar-Canada dropped from C$1.3199 to $1.3139, the move followed comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who reiterated that rate cuts have done their job and he sees Canadian growth above potential. Dollar-Canada was last at C$1.3147. Aussie-dollar rose from $0.7580 to $0.7617, higher ore and steel futures were seen to underpin, traders also noted comments from former RBA board member John Edwards, who said, the Reserve Bank could increase rates 8 times in the next 2 years. Aussie was last at $0.7606. Meanwhile, dollar-yen is trading at Y112.20 and cable at $1.2817, after trading in respective ranges of Y112.03 to Y112.35 and $1.2809 to $1.2821.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (U17) Immediate Focus On Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 164.51 Hourly support June 27 now resistance
*RES 3: 163.96 55-DMA
*RES 2: 163.86 Hourly resistance June 27a
*RES 1: 163.39 Hourly resistance June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.26

*SUP 1: 163.13 Low June 27
*SUP 2: 162.96 Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 162.56 21-WMA
*SUP 4: 162.39 Low May 23    

*COMMENTARY: Having recently supported, the aggressive break of the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base sees immediate pressure on the daily bull channel base and overall focus now on 161.68-162.39 where May lows are found. Resistance layers have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (164.74) to shift focus back to 165.44-55.

 

EUROSTOXX50: Immediate Bearish Focus on 3521.91


*RES 4: 3615.06 High June 2
*RES 3: 3598.06 High June 20
*RES 2: 3581.43 High June 26
*RES 1: 3561.59 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3538.32

*SUP 1: 3526.52 Low June 22
*SUP 2: 3526.29 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 3521.91 Low June 21
*SUP 4: 3497.92 High Apr 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking the past 6 weeks with broad sideways trading 3497.72-3615.06 defining. The 3615.06 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to shift focus to tests of 2017 highs. Bears need a close below 3497.72 to confirm focus on tests off 3463.50-3473.41 where the 100-DMA is situated. The most recent topside failure sees pressure back on 3521.91 support.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


Eurex Exchange and MNI are both part of the Deutsche Börse Group

Eurex. An exchange for the better.

As one of the world’s leading derivatives exchanges we offer a broad range of international benchmark products.

For example, we operate one of the most liquid fixed income markets, provide the broadest range of equity index derivatives worldwide and are the platform of choice for European equity derivatives. In addition we cover derivatives on dividends, volatility and ETFs. All on one single platform.

Innovative and reliable technology supplies about 400 participants and 7,500 traders in 35 countries with access to more than 2,000 products across nine traditional and alternative asset classes.

For further information please visit www.eurexchange.com

MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13655




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq100 (NQ) Breaks Weekly Chart Uptrend Support


The Nasdaq100 (NQ) fell almost 2% yesterday and has finally broken below upchannel support (on the daily chart).  More significantly, yesterday's slide breached ascending wedge/upchannel support on the weekly chart, signalling the end of an uptrend the chart depicts as having been in place since last November.  Keep in mind this uptrend is a steeper uptrend within longer term uptrends that can be seen on Stockcharts.com using symbol $NDX using the 5yr weekly timeframe.  Nevertheless, a break of a near 8 month uptrend support will embolden bears to more aggressively sell on any bounce today.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are sliding lower.  Although I'm bearish for at least the next several months generally speaking, I expect a potential short-lived bounce today with the 4hr Stochastics trying to bottom, and key central bank governors Draghi, Kuroda, Carney, Yellen, Poloz all speaking at 930am EST today, perhaps to calm the equity markets in light of yesterday's serious support breach.  Ideally I'd go short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for late week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter). 

 

Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Nifty50, AUDUSD

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


13654




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq Technical Take: 10-day put/call at highest level since 2014


Since topping out on 6/19, the S&P 500 has moved in a sideways pattern, unable to gain traction from the strong gains from Healthcare stocks. Also during that period the bearish bets have started pile on with Put buying on the uptick in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. The Put/Call 10 Day Average Ratio (2.38) is now at its highest level since Sept-Oct 2014. The Bears briefly benefited from a short-term pullback in the first half of October 2014, as the large cap tracker dropped by ~7.5%. Stocks rebounded quickly and rallied off its lows to post a 15% gain during the final 60 days of 2014.  

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

13653




Technical Analysis

Quiet Markets


As of 10:45AM:

NASDAQ Composite -0.19% Dow +0.07% S&P 500 +0.04% Russell 2000 -0.04%

NASDAQ Advancers: 1021 Decliners: 1067

Today’s Volume (100day avg): -1.7%

 

U.S. equities are mixed to flat this Tuesday morning as summer trading volumes start to take hold in the U.S. The S&P 500 is seeing mixed sectorized results this morning as 6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are in the red with Telco down 1.13%, Utilities down 0.41% and Tech down 0.29%. Top performing sectors include Energy up 0.64%, Financials up 0.55% and REITS up 0.36%

 

·         Not a believer in the Trump Trade?  The IMF reduced the US growth for 2017 and 2018, noting "significant policy uncertainties."  2017 GDP growth is now expected to be 2.1% (was 2.3%) and 2018 GDP growth is also projected at 2.1% (vs. 2.5%).  Long term growth is expected to converge to the underlying potential growth rate of 1.8%.  The projections do not include the impact of tax reform or spending reductions proposed in the administration's budget.  Somebody needs to do something because 1.8% is not going to get it done.

·         We think this has been discussed before... According to Bloomberg two Senators are discussing the break-up of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to create more competition in the secondary mortgage market.  The size of the two has been a long standing concern.  Among the issues would be how to address the guarantees both companies issue on mortgage backed securities. 

·         Nasdaq welcomes two IPOs this morning with Avenue Therapeutics pricing at $6.00 under the ticker ATXI and Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc pricing at $14.00 under the ticker ESQ. Congratulations and welcome to the family!

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13652




1 2 3 4 5 2 1691

Disclosures

We appreciate your feedback. If you have any questions or comments about IB Traders' Insight please contact ibti@ibkr.com.

The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however, IB does not warrant its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

Any information posted by employees of IB or an affiliated company is based upon information that is believed to be reliable. However, neither IB nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy. IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of any financial instrument. By posting material on IB Traders' Insight, IB is not representing that any particular financial instrument or trading strategy is appropriate for you.