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Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value


These were the 15 securities with largest short value on 2/20/17.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Macro

Mardi Gras markets?


Animal spirits rule the markets these days. But does a period of penance await? Heidi discusses.
 

Laissez les bon temps rouler

The season of Carnival celebrations is upon us, a burst of exuberant revelry, parties and parades, which is then followed by a long period of atonement and penance. As we discuss in the new Investment Directions, our monthly market outlook commentary, investors seem to have taken the dual nature of the season to heart, demonstrating a strong desire to let animal spirits reign—despite a somber realization of the risks ahead.

Second line

Despite an occasional breather, U.S. stocks have continued their upward climb, even after the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 20,000 milestone. The promise of tax reform and other Trump administration policies have continued to fuel strong risk-on sentiment, even though investors acknowledge the impact and timing of those measures is unclear. Meanwhile, the odds of a trade war with one or more trading partners have risen, poorly executed executive orders have been issued, and even a strong, market-friendly tax reform bill will take months to enact, with a long transition likely.

Bead tossing

Nevertheless, we still see the driving force for the markets as reflation: moderately rising economic growth coupled with accelerating inflation driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus. Include strong investor sentiment and it brings to mind “Hey Pocky A-Way,” the classic Mardi Gras song celebrating “feel good music.”

Iko Iko

The reflationary environment suggests both potential winners and losers. Among the potential winners: value equities, which can be helped by gradual increases in interest rates and a steeper yield curve, and small caps, buttressed by higher growth and reduced regulation. The potential losers include Treasuries and bond proxy equities like utilities.

King cake

Still, given the high valuations of U.S. stocks, investors will need to dig deeper to find opportunities in this market. Although there are pockets of value in the United States, investors may want to look overseas in Europe, Japan and select emerging markets in Asia.

Read more in the full Investment Directions report.

Heidi Richardson is Head of Investment Strategy for U.S. iShares and a regular contributor to The Blog.


Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.

The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. The information presented does not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy or investment decision.

This post contains general information only and does not take into account an individual’s financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial advisor before making an investment decision.

International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets and in concentrations of single countries.

©2017 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

iS-20253

 

This article is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

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Securities Lending

SLB Update: Hardest to Borrow


The following table shows the 15 hardest to borrow securities during the week of 2/15/17 - 2/21/17.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Technical Analysis

Oil is accelerating into an intermediate top


In our last publication on Oil, the 24th January 2017, Fingraphs expected one more month of price extension to the upside, before oil should star to retrace Brent is now approaching this important “rendez-vous”.

Oil could potentially make it up above USD 60 per barrel over the coming 2 weeks and then start to correct down into Q2 2017.

 

At FinGraphs, we present all charts over 3 investment horizons using 3 indicators for each one of these investment horizons:

Potential Trend: shown by the 'Bull' or 'Bear' figurines on the upper left side of the chart.

Possible Targets & Timing: targets are shown by the Green, Red or Grey price projection beams. These possible Targets Zones define the potential left in terms of Price objectives and Timing (when the Ellipse at the end of the beam has entered entirely in the chart, potential timing to the objectives has been reached).

Risk assessment: defined by the blue oscillator, the 'Risk Index', fluctuating from Overbought to Oversold. When it enters these exaggeration zones and leaves them again, a potential top or bottom is confirmed.

1. 'Weekly' Left-hand chart, which is updated every week and gives the market perspective over the next few quarters:

Since its bottom early Q1 2016, Brent Oil has been in a corrective uptrend ( Potential Trend ) with possible targets between USD 53,8 and USD 68.6 per barrel (Possible Corrective Targets Up in 'grey' ). The lower end of these possible price objectives has been reached and the potential in terms of Timing (Possible Timing, i.e. “ the grey Ellipse”) is almost finished. This suggests an imminent end to this corrective move up and would suggest that a period of retracement to the downside could start soon.

2. 'Daily' Middle chart, which is updated every day and gives the market perspective over the next few months:

Potentially, the “Bull” uptrend is still in place ( Potential Trend ) and still has some upside potential left, i.e. the lower end of its possible Impulsive Targets up are at USD 59.50 per barrel, the higher end, which extends out of the chart at almost USD 65 a barrel ( Possible Impulsive Targets Up in 'green' ). Yet, the Risk Index had reached the Overbought zone, which usually indicates that a move is nearing exhaustion ( Risk assessment ) and more recently has started to move lower below this Overbought Zone. This usually confirms that a potential top is near (A potential reversal down is usually confirmed only once the Risk Index leaves the Overbought Zone again). Finally, the possible Timing of this impulsion is also nearing completion as its timing Ellipse as entered the chart. We expect another couple of weeks to go as prices move into their impulsive targets up. ( Possible Timing, i.e. “the green Ellipse” ).

3. 'Hourly' Right-hand chart, which is updated 8 times a day and gives the market perspective over the next few weeks:

Following a flat consolidation since early January, the Hourly chart is back in a potential 'Bull' Trend ( Potential Trend ). The Risk Index is in the middle of its range, showing no signs of exaggerations. Possible Price Targets are eying possible price objectives up to a zone between USD 57 per barrel and USD 59 per barrel (calculated as the projection extends out of the chart). Finally, the potential timing to the objectives has still about a week or so to go. As per the Daily chart, we believe it can potentially accelerate up towards a top around USD 59 a barrel at the end of the month.

Summary:

Longer term, Brent has been correcting up since early 2016, it has now reached the lower end of its possible corrective target zone up and should soon start retracing down

Medium term, Brent has been in an impulsive uptrend, which still has a bit of potential (USD 59 to lower 65 a barrel), yet a top may materialize towards the end of the month.

Shorter term, Brent is in an acceleration up with price targets towards USD 59 a barrel over the next week or so

 

Management Joint Trust SA is the editor of the on-line financial graphics platforms, FinGraphs, as well as an independent research company. The information and graphics in this presentation are being provided for general market commentary and education purposes. This presentation does not constitute a solicitation or offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Any reference to a transaction, trade, position, holding, security, market, or level is purely meant to educate readers about our methodology as well as possible risks and opportunities in the marketplace and are not meant to imply that any person or entity should take any action whatsoever without first evaluating such action(s) in light of their own situation either on their own or through a professional advisor. If a person or entity does not believe they are qualified to make such decisions, they should seek professional advice. The prices listed are for reference only and are in no way intended to represent an actual trade. This information is not a substitute for professional advice of any nature, including tax, legal, and financial. While we believe the information contained herein to be accurate, all numbers should be verified by the reader through independent sources. Trading securities, options, futures, or any other security involves risk and can result in the immediate and substantial loss of the capital invested. Every reader/recipient is responsible for his or her own investment decisions.

This article is from FinGraphs and is being posted with FinGraphs’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or FinGraphs and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Stocks

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight February 22, 2017


As of 11:10AM:

NASDAQ Composite -0.23% Dow -0.04% S&P 500 -0.21% Russell 2000 -0.27%
NASDAQ Advancers: 762 / Decliners: 1362
Today’s Volume (100day avg):  +11%

US stocks are slightly weaker this morning ahead of this afternoon’s Fed minutes and traders are expected to hear more hawkish commentary from the committee.  Recent comments from Fed members leave the door open for a March rate hike, but a more dovish tone might catch currencies and treasuries by surprise.  The probability of a March rate increase has climbed to 38%, given a boost to the DXY Index.  Gold is a little lower, and crude oil is off about 1.5% ahead of tomorrow’s inventory data and on comments from Total’s CEO saying OPEC cuts should be extended beyond June.  All sectors are lower expect for Materials (+.03) and Utilities (+0.1%).

  • Garmin is best performer in the S&P 500, up more than 9% this morning after reporting strong results and announced they’ve been selected by BMW to supply computing modules for cars in the future.  Factset reports earnings for S&P-500 companies are on pace for the first consecutive quarters of annual growth since the end of 2014.
  • On the economic front, US Home sales of previously owned homes rose this past month (+3.3%) to an annual rate of 5.69million (highest level since Feb 2007). The average home price sale was up to $228,900 (+7.1%) while overall inventory fell to 1.69 million, a 7% decline from the same time last year.  

Technical Take:

This week the iShares U.S. home Construction ETF (ticker ITB) is breaking out above the $29.75 -$30 range which has been a clearly defined resistance zone for the past 18-months.  Today’s highs have not been seen since July 2007 when housing was in the early-to-mid stages of a precipitous decline that led to the Great Recession.  Now ten years later the economics have flipped where existing home sales are rising to ten year highs as inventory levels are making record lows.  Momentum is very close to confirming this week’s breakout with the weekly RSI now equal to the 65 level it made in July 2016.  An interesting divergence however can be seen in the volume metrics as there haven’t been many outsized volume weeks over the prior 18-moths.  In fact the weekly On-Balance-Volume (OBV) figure is well below both its 2016 and 2015 highs.  The takeaway here could be one of two things.  Either institutions do not believe this week’s breakout and thus it should not be trusted, or conversely there will be many latecomers looking to get in on this bullish breakout suggesting it has a ways to go. 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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